河南省县域贫困程度及影响因素分析

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.05.007

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摘要贫困地区的地理识别，是区域扶贫政策精准、有效实施的前提。以经济指标衡量河南省县域相对贫困程度，并借助有序logit回归模型分析社会经济发展、自然条件、区位交通、历史基础4类变量16个影响因子对区域贫困状况的影响程度。分析发现，河南省县域综合经济发展水平存在较大的区域差异，经济发展水平相对较低的县域多分布在豫西和豫东南，且区域内存在部分潜在贫困县。回归分析结果表明，工业化水平、居民储蓄水平、气温、湿度、到最近城市的距离、国道道路密度、期初经济水平7个因子对县域贫困程度影响显著。地区扶贫政策实施过程中，在重视经济因素的减贫效应时，也应重视自然因素的致贫效应，政府主导，因地制宜，逐步实现区域协调发展。

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关键词 ：贫困程度, 潜在贫困县, 影响因素, 有序logit回归模型, 河南省

Abstract：In this paper, the relative poverty degree of the county in Henan Province is measured by the economic indices, that's the per capita net income of rural residents, per capita GDP and per capita public finance budget, and based on the measurement we make a classification of the county poverty level according to certain rules. The study period in this paper is from 2001 to 2014. On the basis of the classification, then by employing the ordinal logit regression model, we analysis the impacts of the influencing factors on regional poverty situation. And this paper select 16 indices from four aspects, such as the social and economic development situations, natural conditions, regional traffic conditions and the historical basis, etc. The study shows that, there is a big difference in the level of county economic development of Henan Province, and the relatively lower ones located in the west and the southeast of Henan. Through comparative analysis, out of the national key counties for poverty alleviation and development, we found that there are also some potential poverty counties. The results of the regression analysis show that there are seven factors have significant influence on the poverty situation of the counties, such as the level of industrialization, saving level of the urban and rural residents, temperature, moisture, distance to the nearest city, the density of the national road and economic development in the early stages, etc.

Key words： the degree of poverty the potential poverty county influencing factors ordinal logistic regression model Henan Province

基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目（41201131，41471117）；河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划（2014GGJS-078）

通讯作者: 李小建(1954-),男,河南孟津人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为经济地理学。E-mail:xjli@henu.edu.cn。 E-mail: xjli@henu.edu.cn

作者简介: 杨慧敏(1989-),女,河南汝州人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为多维贫困与城乡发展。E-mail:yanghuimin1989@126.com。

引用本文:

杨慧敏, 罗庆, 李小建. 河南省县域贫困程度及影响因素分析[J]. 人文地理, 2017, 32(5): 48-55. YANG Hui-min, LUO Qing, LI Xiao-jian. THE ANALYSIS OF COUNTY POVERTY DEGREE AND THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF HENAN PROVINCE. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 32(5): 48-55.

链接本文:

http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2017.05.007 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V32/I5/48

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